An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
" data-astro-cid-hrad4euh> Applied to our $3.5B normalized base, a 15% CAGR brings Year 5 FCF to ~$7B. Boeing generated over $13B in FCF in 2018 before the crashes. $7B represents a realistic, partial return to historical profitability as delivery volumes of the 737 MAX and 787 eventually scale and stabilize.
" data-astro-cid-hrad4euh> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. Boeing's beta is elevated due to constant operational shocks. While a textbook WACC might be slightly lower due to the heavy debt weight, equity investors should demand at least 10% to underwrite the substantial execution and regulatory risks of a turnaround.
" data-astro-cid-hrad4euh> A 2.5% terminal growth rate reflects a mature industrial giant growing slightly below global GDP. It acknowledges the durable global duopoly with Airbus, but bakes in long-term constraints on pricing power due to intense airline customer pushback and persistent regulatory oversight.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | $103.27 | $89.50 | $78.97 | $70.66 | $63.93 |
| 2.0% | $111.88 | $95.89 | $83.91 | $74.58 | $67.13 |
| 2.5% | $122.05 | $103.27 | $89.50 | $78.97 | $70.66 |
| 3.0% | $134.25 | $111.88 | $95.89 | $83.91 | $74.58 |
| 3.5% | $149.17 | $122.05 | $103.27 | $89.50 | $78.97 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Boeing operates in a global duopoly with Airbus, granting it a massive structural moat and a multi-year backlog of commercial aircraft orders. However, repeated execution missteps, quality control issues, and setbacks in its space division have severely impacted near-term competitive momentum. While its defense business provides a stable revenue floor, and recent sales growth shows signs of recovery, the company must prove it can reliably ramp up production while maintaining stringent safety standards. Until operational consistency is restored, Boeing remains a moderate prospect despite its entrenched industry position.
Boeing's competitive momentum has been significantly hampered by operational challenges. While demand for commercial aircraft remains robust, Boeing has struggled to capitalize fully due to production constraints and quality assurance issues, allowing Airbus to gain market share.
Despite severe execution issues, Boeing's economic moat remains highly durable. The capital requirements, regulatory barriers, and technological complexity of building commercial airliners make it virtually impossible for new entrants to disrupt the Boeing-Airbus duopoly.
Market sentiment is a mix of frustration over ongoing execution errors and optimism that a turnaround is eventually inevitable given the duopoly structure and strong underlying travel demand.
Westmount Research. "Boeing (BA) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 19, 2026.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.