COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Church & Dwight (CHD) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$102.40 per share
Current Price $94.58
Margin of Safety 8.3%
UNDERVALUED

The Power of Essential Brands

Church & Dwight's true value lies in its portfolio of essential consumer brands. This portfolio generates highly predictable cash flows, as consumer purchasing behavior for these staples remains resilient regardless of broader economic conditions.

The company's proven strategy of acquiring and integrating niche brands provides a reliable engine for long-term, steady growth. Its defensive posture makes it an attractive core holding in any portfolio.

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
5.0%

A 5% growth rate is applied, reflecting Church & Dwight's consistent, single-digit organic growth supplemented by strategic bolt-on acquisitions in the consumer staples space.

Discount Rate (WACC)
8.0%

An 8.0% discount rate reflects the highly defensive nature of the company's product portfolio and its consistent cash flow generation, mitigating risk.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.0%

A 2.0% terminal growth rate aligns with long-term inflation targets and population growth, acknowledging the mature nature of the consumer goods industry.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
1.0% $122.88 $102.40 $87.77 $76.80 $68.27
1.5% $136.53 $111.71 $94.52 $81.92 $72.28
2.0% $153.60 $122.88 $102.40 $87.77 $76.80
2.5% $175.54 $136.53 $111.71 $94.52 $81.92
3.0% $204.80 $153.60 $122.88 $102.40 $87.77

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

72 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Church & Dwight benefits from an established economic moat built on its portfolio of consumer staples brands. With revenues of $6.11 billion and a robust focus on personal care, household, and specialty products, it demonstrates remarkable resilience in fluctuating economic environments. Its long-standing brand equity provides a compelling prospect for defensive growth.

Competitive Momentum 23/35

Church & Dwight demonstrates consistent competitive momentum in the consumer staples sector through its robust brand recognition.

Moat Durability 25/35

The durability of Church & Dwight's economic moat is primarily driven by its long-standing brand equity and established distribution networks.

Sentiment & Catalysts 24/30

Market sentiment around Church & Dwight is positive, highlighting its defensive characteristics and consistent performance.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why a 5% growth rate for Church & Dwight?

This rate balances the inherently slower growth of mature consumer staples with the company's successful history of strategic acquisitions.

How do private label brands impact valuation?

Private labels present an ongoing threat, but Church & Dwight's strong brand loyalty and competitive pricing mitigate this risk.

Why use an 8% discount rate?

The lower discount rate reflects the reduced volatility and lower risk associated with providing essential, everyday consumer products.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.