COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Cigna (CI) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$274.90 per share
Current Price $264.61
Margin of Safety 3.9%
UNDERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

"> A balanced estimate for a massive, mature healthcare conglomerate. Cigna's Evernorth (PBM) business provides strong, steady cash flows, while the healthcare benefits side faces moderate margin pressure. 8% assumes consistent execution without hyper-growth.

Discount Rate (WACC)
10.0%

"> A balanced estimate for a massive, mature healthcare conglomerate. Cigna's Evernorth (PBM) business provides strong, steady cash flows, while the healthcare benefits side faces moderate margin pressure. 8% assumes consistent execution without hyper-growth.

Terminal Growth Rate
10.0%

"> A balanced estimate for a massive, mature healthcare conglomerate. Cigna's Evernorth (PBM) business provides strong, steady cash flows, while the healthcare benefits side faces moderate margin pressure. 8% assumes consistent execution without hyper-growth.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%
9.0% $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90
9.5% $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90
10.0% $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90
10.5% $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90
11.0% $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90 $274.90

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

74 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Cigna maintains a robust position in the managed healthcare and pharmacy benefit management (PBM) spaces. Generating over $274 billion in annual revenue, its scale provides significant leverage in negotiations with providers and pharmaceutical companies. The integration of its Evernorth health services segment continues to drive growth and diversify revenue streams beyond traditional health insurance. While regulatory scrutiny over PBM practices remains a headwind, the company's strong cash flow generation and strategic capital deployment support a solid long-term outlook.

Competitive Momentum 27/35

Cigna's momentum is driven by the continued expansion of its Evernorth health services portfolio, offsetting slower growth in the core commercial insurance market.

Moat Durability 26/35

Cigna's moat is built on economies of scale and high switching costs for its large employer clients, creating a highly durable and predictable revenue base.

Sentiment & Catalysts 21/30

Market sentiment is balanced, weighing the company's strong cash generation against the looming threat of PBM reform and Medicare Advantage headwinds.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.