COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

CME Group Inc. (CME) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$6.50 per share
Current Price $310.91
Margin of Safety -97.9%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-2cjgdixa> CME Group continues to maintain high FCF generation. Revenue has shown resilient single-digit to low-double-digit growth, but operational leverage is exceptional. A 10% cash flow expansion reasonably balances consistent volume growth and their incredibly robust margin profile.

Discount Rate (WACC)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-2cjgdixa> CME Group continues to maintain high FCF generation. Revenue has shown resilient single-digit to low-double-digit growth, but operational leverage is exceptional. A 10% cash flow expansion reasonably balances consistent volume growth and their incredibly robust margin profile.

Terminal Growth Rate
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-2cjgdixa> CME Group continues to maintain high FCF generation. Revenue has shown resilient single-digit to low-double-digit growth, but operational leverage is exceptional. A 10% cash flow expansion reasonably balances consistent volume growth and their incredibly robust margin profile.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%
7.0% $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50
7.5% $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50
8.0% $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50
8.5% $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50
9.0% $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

82 / 100
Strong Prospect

CME Group operates essentially as a toll bridge for global risk management and financial derivatives trading. Based in Chicago, it dominates the futures market with minimal viable competition in its core products. The massive network effects of matching buyers and sellers, combined with significant regulatory barriers to entry, create an almost insurmountable economic moat. While volume can fluctuate with macroeconomic volatility, the underlying cash generation is exceptional.

Competitive Momentum 27/35

CME maintains dominant momentum not through rapid top-line growth, but through a near-monopoly position in essential financial instruments. Volume growth is closely tied to global economic uncertainty and hedging needs.

Moat Durability 32/35

CME possesses one of the widest economic moats in the financial sector. The combination of its clearinghouse network effects and regulatory licenses creates a near-monopoly that is virtually impossible to replicate from scratch.

Sentiment & Catalysts 23/30

Sentiment is generally stable, supported by CME's reliable cash flow and special dividends. Macroeconomic factors, particularly Federal Reserve interest rate policy, serve as the primary catalysts for volume.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use an 8% discount rate for CME?

Westmount Research. "CME Group Inc. (CME) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.