COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

ConocoPhillips (COP) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$110.00 per share
Current Price $110.00
Margin of Safety 0.0%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
2.0%

Historical performance provides a reality check for our forward projections.

Discount Rate (WACC)
4.2%

Historical performance provides a reality check for our forward projections.

Terminal Growth Rate
100.0%

Historical performance provides a reality check for our forward projections.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 99.0%99.5%100.0%100.5%101.0%
99.0% $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00
99.5% $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00
100.0% $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00
100.5% $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00
101.0% $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

83 / 100
Strong Prospect

ConocoPhillips continues to execute exceptionally well as one of the world's premier independent E&P companies. Operating essentially as a low-cost, high-margin asset aggregator, the company leverages a globally diversified portfolio that spans highly prolific US shale to major conventional projects in Alaska, Europe, and Asia. Management's ruthless focus on capital discipline, reducing breakeven costs, and returning cash to shareholders positions COP as a robust generator of free cash flow in almost any realistic commodity environment.

Competitive Momentum 35/35

COP operates with tremendous operational momentum. The company continues to high-grade its asset base and consistently delivers robust, highly profitable barrels at scale.

Moat Durability 23/35

The E&P sector is notoriously cyclical, making moats relatively narrow. ConocoPhillips relies on massive economies of scale and geographic diversification to buffer commodity shocks.

Sentiment & Catalysts 25/30

Market sentiment remains solidly behind COP due to structural underinvestment in global oil supply, robust shareholder return frameworks, and strong management credibility.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use a 10% discount rate?

Westmount Research. "ConocoPhillips (COP) Intrinsic Value: A Two-Stage DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 19, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.