COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Disney (DIS) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$95.70 per share
Current Price $110.00
Margin of Safety -13.0%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

"> Disney's FCF has been lumpy due to heavy streaming and parks investments. As direct-to-consumer (Disney+, Hulu) reaches steady profitability and park investments stabilize, cash flow margins should expand. 8% assumes solid bottom-line improvement rather than massive top-line acceleration.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

"> Disney's FCF has been lumpy due to heavy streaming and parks investments. As direct-to-consumer (Disney+, Hulu) reaches steady profitability and park investments stabilize, cash flow margins should expand. 8% assumes solid bottom-line improvement rather than massive top-line acceleration.

Terminal Growth Rate
9.0%

"> Disney's FCF has been lumpy due to heavy streaming and parks investments. As direct-to-consumer (Disney+, Hulu) reaches steady profitability and park investments stabilize, cash flow margins should expand. 8% assumes solid bottom-line improvement rather than massive top-line acceleration.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%
8.0% $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70
8.5% $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70
9.0% $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70
9.5% $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70
10.0% $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70 $95.70

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

67 / 100
Moderate Prospect

The Walt Disney Company demonstrates enduring strength anchored by its unparalleled intellectual property, resilient theme park business, and deep brand equity. While legacy media networks decline, direct-to-consumer streaming growth and strategic focus on highly profitable franchises provide a robust foundation for long-term value creation. Execution risks remain in managing capital intensity and evolving consumer habits, but the company's core assets offer a durable competitive moat.

Competitive Momentum 22/35

Revenue growth is solid despite headwinds in legacy television, driven largely by theme park performance and strategic pricing power across core properties.

Moat Durability 26/35

Disney's economic moat is exceptionally wide, built upon decades of beloved intellectual property and irreplaceable physical assets in its global theme parks.

Sentiment & Catalysts 19/30

Management transitions and strategic pivots in streaming are heavily scrutinized, but core brand strength provides a floor for sentiment.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF for Disney?

Westmount Research. "Disney (DIS) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.