COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

General Dynamics (GD) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$52.50 per share
Current Price $353.36
Margin of Safety -85.1%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

">General Dynamics possesses a robust order backlog across Aerospace (Gulfstream) and Marine Systems (submarine production). 8% FCF growth models stable execution on existing long-term contracts and modest margin expansion.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

">General Dynamics possesses a robust order backlog across Aerospace (Gulfstream) and Marine Systems (submarine production). 8% FCF growth models stable execution on existing long-term contracts and modest margin expansion.

Terminal Growth Rate
9.0%

">General Dynamics possesses a robust order backlog across Aerospace (Gulfstream) and Marine Systems (submarine production). 8% FCF growth models stable execution on existing long-term contracts and modest margin expansion.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%
8.0% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
8.5% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
9.0% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
9.5% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
10.0% $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Key Risks

Defense Budget Constraints

General Dynamics is heavily reliant on U.S. defense spending. Any shifts in federal budget priorities or congressional impasses could reduce future contract awards.

Supply Chain & Execution

The submarine manufacturing base (Electric Boat) and aerospace (Gulfstream) face intense supply chain bottlenecks and labor constraints, which can compress margins or delay deliveries.

Fixed-Price Contracts

Inflationary pressures can hurt profitability on legacy fixed-price contracts if costs outpace negotiated pricing.

Economic Prospect Score

76 / 100
Strong Prospect

General Dynamics possesses a robust and highly durable economic moat, underpinned by massive long-term government contracts and formidable barriers to entry in defense manufacturing. The company is currently experiencing solid top-line growth (7.8%), driven by geopolitical tensions and elevated global defense spending. Its aerospace segment, primarily Gulfstream, provides a high-margin civilian counterbalance to its predictable defense revenue. With robust free cash flow generation and a pristine record of dividend growth, General Dynamics remains a highly stable and attractive prospect in the current global environment.

Competitive Momentum 27/35

General Dynamics demonstrates steady and reliable competitive momentum. The current geopolitical landscape ensures robust demand across its Marine Systems, Combat Systems, and Technologies segments, while the Aerospace division benefits from strong business jet demand.

Moat Durability 30/35

The durability of GD's moat is exceptionally high. Its position is protected by immense regulatory hurdles, deep technical expertise, massive capital requirements, and decades-long relationships with the U.S. Department of Defense.

Sentiment & Catalysts 19/30

Market sentiment is generally favorable, supported by heightened global security concerns and a strong backlog. The company's consistent capital return policy is highly valued by defensive investors.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.