COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Gilead Sciences (GILD) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$120.00 per share
Current Price $141.29
Margin of Safety -15.1%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
3.0%

Starting with the most recent baseline FCF of $9456M, we project cash flows for the next 5 years.

Discount Rate (WACC)
3.0%

<div class="assumptions-grid" data-astro-cid-l5m522e5> <div class="assumption-card" data-astro-cid-l5m522e5> <div class="ac-title" data-astro-cid-l5m522e5>Years 1-5 FCF Growth

Terminal Growth Rate
2.0%

Starting with the most recent baseline FCF of $9456M, we project cash flows for the next 5 years.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
1.0% $120.00 $120.00 $60.00 $40.00 $30.00
1.5% $120.00 $240.00 $80.00 $48.00 $34.29
2.0% $120.00 $120.00 $120.00 $60.00 $40.00
2.5% $120.00 $120.00 $240.00 $80.00 $48.00
3.0% $120.00 $120.00 $120.00 $120.00 $60.00

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

68 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Gilead Sciences possesses a highly durable economic moat derived from its near-monopoly in the HIV treatment market. The exceptional free cash flow generated by its core virology business provides the capital necessary to fund its ambitious expansion into oncology. While the company faces risks associated with future patent expirations and the uncertain payoff of large acquisitions, its deeply entrenched market position, robust dividend, and expanding pipeline make it a solid, moderate prospect for investors.

Competitive Momentum 25/35

Gilead's competitive momentum relies heavily on its dominant HIV franchise, anchored by Biktarvy. The company is actively working to diversify its revenue base by aggressively growing its oncology footprint to offset anticipated patent cliffs in older drug lines.

Moat Durability 24/35

The company's moat is built on intangible assets (patents) and high switching costs in its core therapeutic areas. Patients established on life-saving, highly tolerable virology treatments are highly unlikely to switch to competitor products.

Sentiment & Catalysts 19/30

Sentiment has been mixed over the past few years, weighed down by expensive acquisitions and declining COVID-19 revenues. However, successful clinical readouts in the oncology pipeline are beginning to positively shift the market narrative.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use a 3% growth rate for Gilead?

Westmount Research. "Gilead Sciences (GILD) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 19, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.