COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$8,252.00 per share
Current Price $241.93
Margin of Safety 3310.9%
UNDERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
15.0%

"> Mathematically derived by analyzing historical FCF data. We use a 3-year CAGR logic bound between 5% and 15% to remain conservative.

Discount Rate (WACC)
10.4%

"> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. Assuming standard Equity Risk Premium of 5% and an Aerospace Beta of ~1.25. WACC derived mathematically.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%

"> Long-term nominal GDP proxy.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
1.5% $9,447.94 $8,252.00 $7,324.81 $6,584.93 $5,980.81
2.0% $10,186.06 $8,809.57 $7,760.81 $6,935.19 $6,268.35
2.5% $11,049.29 $9,447.94 $8,252.00 $7,324.81 $6,584.93
3.0% $12,072.37 $10,186.06 $8,809.57 $7,760.81 $6,935.19
3.5% $13,304.24 $11,049.29 $9,447.94 $8,252.00 $7,324.81

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

83 / 100
Strong Prospect

Howmet Aerospace benefits from strong demand in the commercial aerospace sector and its essential position in the supply chain for advanced engine components. It demonstrates significant competitive momentum with robust pricing power and durable switching costs. Its moat is fortified by specialized manufacturing capabilities and intellectual property. The current sentiment remains positive as defense and commercial aircraft build rates recover and grow.

Competitive Momentum 30/35

Howmet Aerospace shows excellent momentum, driven by strong pricing power and robust market share trajectory.

Moat Durability 28/35

The durability of Howmet's moat rests on exceptionally high switching costs and formidable intellectual property.

Sentiment & Catalysts 25/30

Market sentiment is very positive, supported by strong execution and clear catalysts in commercial aviation and defense.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF?

Compiled by Gemini 3.1. "Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis."

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.