COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$12.60 per share
Current Price $20.20
Margin of Safety -37.6%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-ruwom5r2> ICE has grown FCF consistently via organic expansion and strategic M&A (like Black Knight). With high recurring revenue in its data segment, 8% FCF growth represents realistic compounding without aggressive optimism.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-ruwom5r2> The 10-Year Treasury is 4.18%. With a lower beta than high-beta tech, ICE represents stable, utility-like financial infrastructure. A 9% required return adequately compensates for equity risk without overly penalizing its sticky cash flows.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.5%

" data-astro-cid-ruwom5r2> Financial markets and data needs grow structurally alongside global GDP and inflation. ICE's pricing power ensures it can pass on inflation, making 3.5% a fair perpetual growth rate for its quasi-monopolistic assets.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
2.5% $15.40 $12.60 $10.66 $9.24 $8.15
3.0% $17.33 $13.86 $11.55 $9.90 $8.66
3.5% $19.80 $15.40 $12.60 $10.66 $9.24
4.0% $23.10 $17.32 $13.86 $11.55 $9.90
4.5% $27.72 $19.80 $15.40 $12.60 $10.66

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

89 / 100
Strong Prospect

Intercontinental Exchange boasts an exceptionally wide economic moat driven by its ownership of critical financial infrastructure, including the NYSE. With a 7.8% revenue growth and reported 100% gross margins, its competitive momentum is incredibly stable. The company's expansion into mortgage technology provides a long runway for growth, solidifying its position as a dominant data and exchange operator.

Competitive Momentum 29/35

ICE demonstrates stable and reliable competitive momentum, anchored by its monopolistic exchange assets and growing data services.

Moat Durability 34/35

ICE possesses an incredibly durable economic moat, built on massive network effects and significant regulatory barriers to entry.

Sentiment & Catalysts 26/30

Sentiment is steadily positive, recognizing ICE as a high-quality, compound-growth compounder.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use a 9% discount rate for ICE?

Westmount Research. "Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 20, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.