COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$132.70 per share
Current Price $236.24
Margin of Safety -43.8%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
0.0%

" data-astro-cid-qej2bcqa> Derived directly from the company's multi-year historical Free Cash Flow CAGR. We cap it structurally at 5% to prevent overestimating growth in cyclical boom years, ensuring a conservative base.

Discount Rate (WACC)
4.2%

" data-astro-cid-qej2bcqa> Derived directly from the company's multi-year historical Free Cash Flow CAGR. We cap it structurally at 5% to prevent overestimating growth in cyclical boom years, ensuring a conservative base.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.1%

" data-astro-cid-qej2bcqa> Derived directly from the company's multi-year historical Free Cash Flow CAGR. We cap it structurally at 5% to prevent overestimating growth in cyclical boom years, ensuring a conservative base.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.1%1.6%2.1%2.6%3.1%
1.1% $255.57 $132.70 $89.62 $67.65 $54.33
1.6% $475.89 $174.69 $106.98 $77.10 $60.27
2.1% $3,450.20 $255.57 $132.70 $89.62 $67.65
2.6% $132.70 $475.89 $174.69 $106.98 $77.10
3.1% $132.70 $3,450.20 $255.57 $132.70 $89.62

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

68 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Marathon Petroleum Corporation demonstrates a moderate prospect based on current market dynamics. Its competitive momentum and moat durability reflect its strategic positioning in the industry. Management's execution and capital allocation further solidify the overall economic prospect. Investors should closely monitor its ongoing performance.

Competitive Momentum 26/35

Assesses the company's competitive positioning, revenue growth relative to peers, and overall pricing power in the market.

Moat Durability 20/35

Evaluates the strength of the company's economic moat, including switching costs, network effects, and capital intensity.

Sentiment & Catalysts 22/30

Analyzes market sentiment, earnings estimate revisions, and management's capital allocation track record.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.