COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Micron (MU) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$37.40 per share
Current Price $12.00
Margin of Safety 211.7%
UNDERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
25.0%

" data-astro-cid-mprqfxda> Memory cycles are notorious for boom and bust. However, the AI wave demands staggering amounts of HBM, where Micron has a yield and power efficiency advantage. This drives unprecedented revenue growth. 25% growth over 5 years is aggressive but warranted by the secular AI buildout.

Discount Rate (WACC)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-mprqfxda> Memory cycles are notorious for boom and bust. However, the AI wave demands staggering amounts of HBM, where Micron has a yield and power efficiency advantage. This drives unprecedented revenue growth. 25% growth over 5 years is aggressive but warranted by the secular AI buildout.

Terminal Growth Rate
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-mprqfxda> Memory cycles are notorious for boom and bust. However, the AI wave demands staggering amounts of HBM, where Micron has a yield and power efficiency advantage. This drives unprecedented revenue growth. 25% growth over 5 years is aggressive but warranted by the secular AI buildout.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%
9.0% $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40
9.5% $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40
10.0% $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40
10.5% $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40
11.0% $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40 $37.40

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

87 / 100
Strong Prospect

Micron Technology is experiencing an explosive upward trajectory, fueled by its critical role in supplying the memory necessary for AI and high-performance computing. With revenue growth nearing 196% and free cash flow approaching $2.9 billion, the company's financial momentum is staggering. Its leadership in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and next-generation DRAM and NAND technologies solidifies its competitive position in an oligopolistic market. While memory remains a fundamentally cyclical commodity, Micron's execution and the sustained demand for AI infrastructure currently outweigh historical cyclical risks.

Competitive Momentum 34/35

Micron's competitive momentum is exceptional, driven by unprecedented demand for AI-related memory and strong execution in bringing advanced nodes to market. The company is currently operating at peak momentum.

Moat Durability 26/35

Micron's moat relies on scale and massive technological barriers to entry. The memory industry has consolidated into an oligopoly, creating a durable structure, though the underlying products remain subject to cyclical pricing dynamics.

Sentiment & Catalysts 27/30

Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, focused entirely on the AI narrative and Micron's role as a key enabler. Execution and capital allocation further bolster this positive outlook.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of P/E for a cyclical semiconductor stock?

Westmount Research. "Micron (MU) Intrinsic Value: A Two-Stage DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.