COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

NIKE (NKE) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$51.40 per share
Current Price $53.91
Margin of Safety -4.7%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
6.0%

" data-astro-cid-vvj6dk72> Nike is in turnaround mode. While short-term challenges remain (competition from On, Hoka), 6% FCF growth models a gradual recovery in margins and brand heat over the next 5 years.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-vvj6dk72> Nike is in turnaround mode. While short-term challenges remain (competition from On, Hoka), 6% FCF growth models a gradual recovery in margins and brand heat over the next 5 years.

Terminal Growth Rate
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-vvj6dk72> Nike is in turnaround mode. While short-term challenges remain (competition from On, Hoka), 6% FCF growth models a gradual recovery in margins and brand heat over the next 5 years.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%
8.0% $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40
8.5% $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40
9.0% $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40
9.5% $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40
10.0% $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40 $51.40

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

59 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Nike remains a dominant global brand, but its economic prospect score reflects a period of significant transition and competitive pressure. With stagnant revenue growth (0.6%) and compressed profit margins (5.4%), the company is working to reset its product pipeline and distribution strategy. While the durability of the Nike brand provides a sturdy moat, current competitive momentum is weak, leading to a moderate overall prospect rating.

Competitive Momentum 16/35

Competitive momentum is currently weak as the company struggles to reinvigorate top-line growth amidst intense competition in the footwear space.

Moat Durability 25/35

The durability of Nike's moat rests heavily on its unparalleled brand equity and massive global scale, which provide a powerful buffer during operational missteps.

Sentiment & Catalysts 18/30

Market sentiment is cautious, heavily weighing the success of management's turnaround efforts and the timing of a return to meaningful growth.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.