An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
Here is the year-by-year projection of Free Cash Flow, discounted back to present value (PV). All figures in millions USD.
Here is the year-by-year projection of Free Cash Flow, discounted back to present value (PV). All figures in millions USD.
Here is the year-by-year projection of Free Cash Flow, discounted back to present value (PV). All figures in millions USD.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | $105.97 | $88.31 | $75.69 | $66.23 | $58.87 |
| 2.5% | $117.75 | $96.34 | $81.52 | $70.65 | $62.34 |
| 3.0% | $132.47 | $105.97 | $88.31 | $75.69 | $66.23 |
| 3.5% | $151.39 | $117.75 | $96.34 | $81.52 | $70.65 |
| 4.0% | $176.62 | $132.47 | $105.97 | $88.31 | $75.69 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
O'Reilly Automotive continues to benefit from an aging U.S. vehicle fleet and its superior dual-market strategy serving both DIY and professional customers. Generating over $1B in free cash flow, the company funds an aggressive, value-accretive share repurchase program. Its expansive distribution network creates a formidable barrier to entry against both physical competitors and online challengers. Strong operational execution ensures consistent margin protection despite inflationary pressures.
O'Reilly's competitive momentum is exceptionally strong, driven by consistent comparable store sales growth and successful execution in the highly demanding professional (DIFM) segment.
The durability of O'Reilly's moat is rooted in its massive, highly optimized distribution infrastructure. This physical network provides immediate parts availability that digital-only competitors struggle to match.
Market sentiment for ORLY is broadly positive, viewing it as a defensive, all-weather compounder. The management team's flawless execution of stock buybacks is a massive catalyst.
Westmount Research. "O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.