COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Progressive (PGR) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$87.70 per share
Current Price $201.44
Margin of Safety -56.5%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-b4nscx23> Progressive consistently grows premiums through advanced telematics and disciplined underwriting. 10% cash flow growth reflects sustained market share gains in the auto insurance sector while maintaining target profit margins.

Discount Rate (WACC)
7.0%

" data-astro-cid-b4nscx23> Progressive consistently grows premiums through advanced telematics and disciplined underwriting. 10% cash flow growth reflects sustained market share gains in the auto insurance sector while maintaining target profit margins.

Terminal Growth Rate
7.0%

" data-astro-cid-b4nscx23> Progressive consistently grows premiums through advanced telematics and disciplined underwriting. 10% cash flow growth reflects sustained market share gains in the auto insurance sector while maintaining target profit margins.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%
6.0% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70
6.5% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70
7.0% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70
7.5% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70
8.0% $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70 $87.70

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

83 / 100
Strong Prospect

The Progressive Corporation is a dominant force in the US property and casualty insurance market, demonstrating exceptional competitive momentum with double-digit revenue growth. The company leverages advanced telematics and data analytics to maintain highly accurate pricing models and strong operating margins. Generating a massive $11.8 billion in free cash flow, Progressive possesses unparalleled financial flexibility to expand market share. Consequently, PGR stands out as a strong economic prospect with a highly durable moat in the auto insurance sector.

Competitive Momentum 31/35

Analysis of the company's competitive momentum.

Moat Durability 26/35

Analysis of the company's moat durability.

Sentiment & Catalysts 26/30

Analysis of the company's sentiment and catalysts.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple?

Westmount Research. "Progressive (PGR) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.