An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
" data-astro-cid-77x5fwy2> ADP is a mature compounder. An 8% rate accounts for consistent high single-digit revenue growth and modest margin expansion.
" data-astro-cid-77x5fwy2> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. For a defensive company with high recurring revenue, a 9% discount rate provides a solid required return.
" data-astro-cid-77x5fwy2> Long-term nominal GDP growth is ~3%. ADP operates as a tax on employment; they will grow steadily alongside the overall economy.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | $23.04 | $19.20 | $16.46 | $14.40 | $12.80 |
| 2.5% | $25.60 | $20.95 | $17.72 | $15.36 | $13.55 |
| 3.0% | $28.80 | $23.04 | $19.20 | $16.46 | $14.40 |
| 3.5% | $32.91 | $25.60 | $20.95 | $17.72 | $15.36 |
| 4.0% | $38.40 | $28.80 | $23.04 | $19.20 | $16.46 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) maintains a wide economic moat built on exceptionally high switching costs within its core payroll and human capital management (HCM) platforms. As the dominant player in the industry, processing payroll for one in six U.S. workers, its network effects and scale advantages are formidable. While top-line growth is generally steady rather than explosive, expanding operating margins and a massive float on client funds—which benefits from higher interest rates—provide a robust foundation. The recent financial performance, with FY2025 revenue nearing $20.5 billion, underscores its consistent cash generation.
ADP's competitive momentum is driven by its vast scale and expanding suite of HCM solutions, though growth is steady rather than rapid compared to purely cloud-native disruptors.
The durability of ADP's moat is exceptionally high, rooted in steep switching costs and significant scale advantages that deter new entrants.
Sentiment remains positive due to ADP's defensive characteristics and reliable capital returns, though macroeconomic labor trends remain a key variable.
Westmount Research. "ADP (ADP) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, 2026-03-19.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.