COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Western Digital (WDC) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$10.70 per share
Current Price $131.77
Margin of Safety -91.9%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
15.0%

" data-astro-cid-omwdafyi> WDC is emerging from a severe industry downturn. TTM FCF is strong, and we expect 15% annual growth over the next 5 years as pricing for flash memory and high-capacity HDDs remains robust, driven by AI data center needs and constrained supply.

Discount Rate (WACC)
11.0%

" data-astro-cid-omwdafyi> WDC is emerging from a severe industry downturn. TTM FCF is strong, and we expect 15% annual growth over the next 5 years as pricing for flash memory and high-capacity HDDs remains robust, driven by AI data center needs and constrained supply.

Terminal Growth Rate
11.0%

" data-astro-cid-omwdafyi> WDC is emerging from a severe industry downturn. TTM FCF is strong, and we expect 15% annual growth over the next 5 years as pricing for flash memory and high-capacity HDDs remains robust, driven by AI data center needs and constrained supply.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%12.0%
10.0% $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70
10.5% $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70
11.0% $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70
11.5% $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70
12.0% $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70 $10.70

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

72 / 100
Moderate Prospect

With the recent spin-off of its flash business into SanDisk, WDC has transformed into a highly profitable pure-play HDD company. The company demonstrated massive growth, pushing operating revenue to 9.520000e+09 and net income to 1.861000e+09 in FY25. This duopoly position offers significant cash flow generation and pricing stability.

Competitive Momentum 28/35

Strong momentum driven by a massive recovery in operating revenue to 9.520000e+09, slightly outpacing its main competitor.

Moat Durability 18/35

Moat is underpinned by massive IP barriers to entry, though offset by high capital intensity and lack of network effects.

Sentiment & Catalysts 26/30

Sentiment is highly positive following the flash business spin-off and a return to strong profitability.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use a 11% discount rate?

Westmount Research. "Western Digital (WDC) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, Compiled by Gemini 3.1, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.