An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is an S&P 500 constituent with established competitive advantages and consistent cash flow generation. The company's market position provides pricing power and earnings stability.
My DCF applies a 6% FCF growth rate reflecting the company's historical compounding ability, with a 8.5% discount rate capturing sector-specific risks. The valuation is sensitive to growth assumptions — investors should stress-test these inputs.
Amgen Inc. is projected to grow FCF at 6% annually based on competitive dynamics and historical performance.
A 8.5% WACC reflects Amgen Inc.'s risk profile, sector volatility, and balance sheet quality.
A 2.5% terminal rate for long-run growth convergence toward nominal GDP.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | $551.38 | $459.48 | $393.84 | $344.61 | $306.32 |
| 2.0% | $612.64 | $501.25 | $424.14 | $367.58 | $324.34 |
| 2.5% | $689.22 | $551.38 | $459.48 | $393.84 | $344.61 |
| 3.0% | $787.68 | $612.64 | $501.25 | $424.14 | $367.58 |
| 3.5% | $918.96 | $689.22 | $551.38 | $459.48 | $393.84 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Amgen's legacy biologics face biosimilar competition but the obesity pipeline (MariTide) could be transformative. The Horizon Therapeutics acquisition adds rare disease revenue. Valuation is reasonable but growth depends on unproven pipeline drugs.
Based on a 10-year DCF with 6% growth and 8.5% WACC, Opus values AMGN at $459.48/share vs $310.00 current price.
Opus's DCF suggests AMGN is undervalued with a +48.2% margin of safety.
No. This is not financial advice. DCF models are sensitive to assumptions. Use as one data point among many.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.