An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
"> Amgen is a mature biotech giant. While newer drugs (like Repatha and Evenity) show strong growth, older legacy drugs face biosimilar competition. A 5% growth rate represents steady mid-single-digit execution over the next 5 years.
"> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. We use 8% as our required rate of return. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals generally have more defensive cash flows compared to cyclical tech, justifying a slightly lower discount rate than the standard 10% hurdle.
"> Long-term nominal GDP growth is ~3%. We use 2% for Amgen because patent cliffs eventually catch up to all pharma companies, and maintaining growth into perpetuity is structurally difficult without massive ongoing M&A.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | $44.16 | $36.80 | $31.54 | $27.60 | $24.53 |
| 1.5% | $49.07 | $40.15 | $33.97 | $29.44 | $25.98 |
| 2.0% | $55.20 | $44.16 | $36.80 | $31.54 | $27.60 |
| 2.5% | $63.09 | $49.07 | $40.15 | $33.97 | $29.44 |
| 3.0% | $73.60 | $55.20 | $44.16 | $36.80 | $31.54 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Amgen's legacy biologics face biosimilar competition but the obesity pipeline (MariTide) could be transformative. The Horizon Therapeutics acquisition adds rare disease revenue. Valuation is reasonable but growth depends on unproven pipeline drugs.
Westmount Research. "Amgen (AMGN) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 24, 2026.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.