COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$20.40 per share
Current Price $87.52
Margin of Safety -76.7%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
5.0%

"> Colgate operates in highly mature markets but enjoys immense brand loyalty and pricing power. High single-digit growth is unrealistic without major acquisitions, but 5% is an achievable mix of modest volume growth, price increases, and margin optimization.

Discount Rate (WACC)
7.0%

"> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. With a very low beta (typically around 0.4-0.5), Colgate's cost of equity is exceptionally low. A 7% discount rate reflects its status as a defensive, recession-resistant dividend aristocrat.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.0%

"> Long-term nominal GDP growth and inflation hover around 2-3%. Assuming a consumer staples giant grows at 2% in perpetuity is a very safe assumption, meaning it simply maintains its purchasing power relative to global inflation over the decades.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
1.0% $25.50 $20.40 $17.00 $14.57 $12.75
1.5% $29.14 $22.67 $18.55 $15.69 $13.60
2.0% $34.00 $25.50 $20.40 $17.00 $14.57
2.5% $40.80 $29.14 $22.67 $18.55 $15.69
3.0% $51.00 $34.00 $25.50 $20.40 $17.00

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

68 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Colgate-Palmolive boasts an incredibly durable consumer staples moat, anchored by its global dominance in oral care and a rapidly growing pet nutrition segment (Hill's). However, competitive momentum is constrained by its massive scale and mature end-markets, limiting top-line growth. While pricing power remains robust, volume growth requires constant innovation and marketing spend. The stock offers a defensive, steady-yield prospect rather than aggressive capital appreciation.

Competitive Momentum 22/35

Growth is steady but unexceptional, heavily reliant on pricing actions to offset tepid volume expansion in mature markets.

Moat Durability 28/35

An exceptionally wide and durable moat built on decades of brand equity, global distribution networks, and consumer habituation.

Sentiment & Catalysts 18/30

Sentiment is stable, viewing CL as a defensive safe haven, with Hill's Pet Nutrition acting as the primary growth engine.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use a 7% discount rate for Colgate-Palmolive?

Westmount Research. "Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, 2026-03-19.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.