COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Newmont (NEM) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$22.70 per share
Current Price $106.54
Margin of Safety -78.7%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
2.5%

"> Derived mathematically from the historical CAGR of operating cash flows, capped to reflect realistic medium-term expansion in mining production and gold price stabilization.

Discount Rate (WACC)
7.8%

"> Calculated using CAPM: 10Y Treasury (4.18%) + (Beta × ERP). Reflects the required return demanded by investors for bearing the risk of holding Newmont equity.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%

"> Assumes 2.5% long-term nominal economic growth. A mature mining company will typically track inflation and global economic expansion in perpetuity.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
1.5% $27.98 $22.70 $19.10 $16.48 $14.50
2.0% $31.66 $25.06 $20.74 $17.69 $15.42
2.5% $36.46 $27.98 $22.70 $19.10 $16.48
3.0% $42.97 $31.66 $25.06 $20.74 $17.69
3.5% $52.31 $36.46 $27.98 $22.70 $19.10

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

64 / 100
Moderate Prospect

As the world's largest gold mining corporation, Newmont possesses an unparalleled portfolio of tier-one assets across favorable mining jurisdictions. Strong operating margins provide a defensive profile, but moat durability is limited by commodity fungibility.

Competitive Momentum 26/35

Newmont benefits from its massive scale and high-quality gold production profile, though its top line remains heavily tied to macroeconomic commodity cycles.

Moat Durability 17/35

Newmont's economic moat stems from its massive, irreplaceable portfolio of high-grade mining assets in safe jurisdictions.

Sentiment & Catalysts 21/30

Sentiment is largely driven by macroeconomic factors like inflation expectations, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, positioning the stock as a premier safe-haven asset.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.