COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Cummins (CMI) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$33.70 per share
Current Price $548.68
Margin of Safety -93.9%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
4.0%

" data-astro-cid-3sqwylpq> Cummins has seen moderate but cyclical top-line growth. The transition to zero-emissions tech requires heavy investment, but their core engine business remains highly cash-generative. 4% is a realistic long-term trend line bridging their legacy diesel strength and future energy transition.

Discount Rate (WACC)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-3sqwylpq> Cummins has seen moderate but cyclical top-line growth. The transition to zero-emissions tech requires heavy investment, but their core engine business remains highly cash-generative. 4% is a realistic long-term trend line bridging their legacy diesel strength and future energy transition.

Terminal Growth Rate
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-3sqwylpq> Cummins has seen moderate but cyclical top-line growth. The transition to zero-emissions tech requires heavy investment, but their core engine business remains highly cash-generative. 4% is a realistic long-term trend line bridging their legacy diesel strength and future energy transition.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%
9.0% $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70
9.5% $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70
10.0% $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70
10.5% $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70
11.0% $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70 $33.70

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

66 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Cummins holds a dominant position in the global diesel engine market, particularly in heavy-duty commercial vehicles. It commands a strong economic moat due to immense technological expertise, global scale, and a vast distribution network. The company is effectively managing the energy transition through its Accelera segment, investing heavily in zero-emission technologies like hydrogen and battery electric powertrains. While the core diesel business generates substantial cash flow today, long-term secular growth depends on successfully monetizing these new, lower-margin technologies in a highly competitive, shifting landscape.

Competitive Momentum 21/35

Cummins faces a critical juncture. While its core business remains robust with high market share, it must navigate the transition to zero-emissions amidst intensifying competition.

Moat Durability 26/35

A durable moat is currently anchored by its legacy business, characterized by immense technological know-how, a vast global service network, and long-standing OEM relationships.

Sentiment & Catalysts 19/30

Investor sentiment is generally constructive, balancing the strong current cash flows from the legacy business against the uncertain profitability timeline of the Accelera transition.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Cummins currently trading so far above this intrinsic value estimate?

Westmount Research. "Cummins (CMI) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.