COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Duke Energy (DUK) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$32.20 per share
Current Price $100.50
Margin of Safety -68.0%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

Discount Rate (WACC)
7.0%

" data-astro-cid-cksdilyf> With the 10Y Treasury at 4.18%, a 7% required return is standard for regulated utilities given their low volatility and predictable cash flows. A higher discount rate would be overly punitive for a monopoly business.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.0%

" data-astro-cid-cksdilyf> Long-term nominal GDP growth is around 2-3%. A 2% perpetuity growth rate assumes Duke Energy will grow slightly below GDP over the long run, simply keeping pace with inflation and population growth in its territories.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
1.0% $40.25 $32.20 $26.83 $23.00 $20.12
1.5% $46.00 $35.78 $29.27 $24.77 $21.47
2.0% $53.67 $40.25 $32.20 $26.83 $23.00
2.5% $64.40 $46.00 $35.78 $29.27 $24.77
3.0% $80.50 $53.67 $40.25 $32.20 $26.83

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

66 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Duke Energy operates as an essential public utility with immense economic moats and highly regulated momentum. Earning $19.62B in revenue and nearly $4.96B in net income, it converts its massive infrastructure into $12.33B of operating cash flow. While the heavy $14.02B in capex leads to negative FCF in the near term, this spending reinforces the grid and clean energy initiatives, cementing its durable market position.

Competitive Momentum 20/35

Duke Energy's growth is inherently limited by its status as a regulated entity. However, its significant $19.62B revenue stream provides a highly stable platform for ongoing, methodical expansion across its territories.

Moat Durability 28/35

The durability of Duke Energy's economic moat is nearly absolute within its operating regions. The sheer capital intensity and regulatory frameworks create impenetrable barriers to entry.

Sentiment & Catalysts 18/30

Sentiment is bolstered by Duke Energy's robust dividend and strategic investments, although it remains sensitive to the broader interest rate environment.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use an adjusted Operating Cash Flow instead of Free Cash Flow?

Westmount Research. "Duke Energy (DUK) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.