COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Emerson Electric (EMR) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$8.00 per share
Current Price $121.50
Margin of Safety -93.4%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

"> Emerson is transitioning into a higher-growth, higher-margin automation portfolio (e.g., acquiring NI). While historical revenue growth has been mixed due to divestitures, the new core is positioned to grow faster. 8% FCF growth balances optimism for the new portfolio with the cyclical realities of industrial end-markets.

Discount Rate (WACC)
11.0%

"> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. Equity risk premium: 5.5%. Beta: 1.20. CAPM derives our cost of equity around 11.0%. This compensates investors for the risk of holding EMR compared to a risk-free bond.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%

"> Long-term nominal GDP growth is typically around 2-3%. A 2.5% terminal growth rate assumes Emerson maintains its market position in global automation and grows roughly in line with the global economy in perpetuity.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
1.5% $9.07 $8.00 $7.16 $6.48 $5.91
2.0% $9.71 $8.50 $7.56 $6.80 $6.18
2.5% $10.46 $9.07 $8.00 $7.16 $6.48
3.0% $11.33 $9.71 $8.50 $7.56 $6.80
3.5% $12.36 $10.46 $9.07 $8.00 $7.16

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

73 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Emerson Electric operates as a steady, reliable industrial automation and software provider globally. While its core engineering services and climate control systems are well entrenched across multiple heavy industries (oil, gas, power, chemicals), top-line growth metrics and precise market share shifts are difficult to verify directly. The company maintains a durable moat stemming from switching costs in specialized industrial environments, but it relies on capital-intensive legacy sectors.

Competitive Momentum 19/35

Emerson's competitive momentum remains steady in the industrial automation and climate control spaces. While specific growth metrics versus peers are unverified, its shift toward software and precise measurement instruments maintains its relevance.

Moat Durability 35/35

Emerson's economic moat is primarily derived from high switching costs in industrial settings, where replacing embedded automation systems or climate controls is highly disruptive.

Sentiment & Catalysts 19/30

Recent sentiment and catalyst data points, including earnings revisions and management actions, are largely unverified at this time.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use FCF instead of Net Income?

Westmount Research. "Emerson Electric (EMR) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, 2026. Compiled by Gemini 3.1.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.