COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$25.90 per share
Current Price $56.41
Margin of Safety -54.1%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-of2d65mp> Copper is critical for the energy transition. We expect continued strong demand and pricing power. However, mining is capital intensive and subject to inflation. 8% FCF growth balances strong top-line potential with rising operational costs.

Discount Rate (WACC)
11.0%

" data-astro-cid-of2d65mp> Copper is critical for the energy transition. We expect continued strong demand and pricing power. However, mining is capital intensive and subject to inflation. 8% FCF growth balances strong top-line potential with rising operational costs.

Terminal Growth Rate
11.0%

" data-astro-cid-of2d65mp> Copper is critical for the energy transition. We expect continued strong demand and pricing power. However, mining is capital intensive and subject to inflation. 8% FCF growth balances strong top-line potential with rising operational costs.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%12.0%
10.0% $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90
10.5% $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90
11.0% $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90
11.5% $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90
12.0% $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90 $25.90

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

68 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Freeport-McMoRan is uniquely positioned to benefit from the global electrification megatrend due to its vast copper reserves. However, its prospect score is tempered by inherently cyclical commodity pricing and high capital intensity. While near-term catalysts exist around global copper supply shortages, the company's reliance on macroeconomic growth limits its overall economic moat compared to pure software or ecosystem businesses. Nevertheless, management's focus on debt reduction and shareholder returns provides a solid floor.

Competitive Momentum 25/35

FCX benefits from strong secular tailwinds in copper demand, though revenue growth is ultimately tethered to global commodity prices rather than pure product innovation.

Moat Durability 21/35

The company's moat is based on massive, hard-to-replicate tier-one assets, offset by a lack of traditional switching costs or network effects.

Sentiment & Catalysts 22/30

Sentiment is heavily influenced by the macro narrative around electrification, while management's execution on capital returns provides structural support.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple?

Westmount Research. "Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.