COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$7.70 per share
Current Price $502.05
Margin of Safety -98.5%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
6.0%

Westmount Research. "HCA Healthcare (HCA) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 19, 2026.

Discount Rate (WACC)
8.5%

" data-astro-cid-igrglyo7>Based on a 4.18% 10Y Treasury yield, a 5.5% equity risk premium, and HCA's beta. Weighted average cost of capital incorporates their substantial debt load.

Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%

" data-astro-cid-igrglyo7>Assumed perpetual growth rate after year 5. Set at 2.5%, slightly below historical GDP growth, representing a mature, stable state.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
1.5% $9.24 $7.70 $6.60 $5.78 $5.13
2.0% $10.27 $8.40 $7.11 $6.16 $5.44
2.5% $11.55 $9.24 $7.70 $6.60 $5.77
3.0% $13.20 $10.27 $8.40 $7.11 $6.16
3.5% $15.40 $11.55 $9.24 $7.70 $6.60

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

86 / 100
Strong Prospect

HCA Healthcare operates an immense network of 186 hospitals and roughly 2,400 care sites, establishing it as a dominant force in the healthcare facilities industry. The company reported a verified revenue of 75600003072 and over 12636000256 in operating cash flow, underscoring its massive scale and financial muscle. Its robust EBITDA and continued strategic focus on expanding higher-margin outpatient and urgent care centers further solidify its formidable economic moat against competitors.

Competitive Momentum 30/35

HCA's competitive momentum remains strong, characterized by consistent revenue growth and an expanding footprint across attractive geographic markets.

Moat Durability 31/35

HCA's moat is deep and durable, built on immense scale, high capital intensity, and significant regulatory barriers that deter new entrants.

Sentiment & Catalysts 25/30

Sentiment around HCA remains generally positive, driven by strong operational execution and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, despite historical compliance issues.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use a WACC of 8.5%?

Westmount Research. "HCA Healthcare (HCA) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 19, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.