An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
" data-astro-cid-77xufajv> FCF in FY2025 was abnormally low ($965M) compared to historical norms (e.g., $1.78B in FY2023). We model an 8% growth rate as a modest recovery trajectory, capturing ongoing benefits from the OpenBlue platform and smart building investments.
" data-astro-cid-77xufajv> FCF in FY2025 was abnormally low ($965M) compared to historical norms (e.g., $1.78B in FY2023). We model an 8% growth rate as a modest recovery trajectory, capturing ongoing benefits from the OpenBlue platform and smart building investments.
" data-astro-cid-77xufajv> FCF in FY2025 was abnormally low ($965M) compared to historical norms (e.g., $1.78B in FY2023). We model an 8% growth rate as a modest recovery trajectory, capturing ongoing benefits from the OpenBlue platform and smart building investments.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 |
| 9.0% | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 |
| 9.5% | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 |
| 10.0% | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 |
| 10.5% | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 | $23.60 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Johnson Controls is navigating a complex environment, balancing the strong secular tailwinds of building decarbonization and energy efficiency against the near-term headwinds facing the commercial real estate sector. The company's strategic pivot toward a higher-margin service and software model, underpinned by its OpenBlue digital platform, strengthens its competitive moat by increasing switching costs. While the ongoing divestment of non-core assets will simplify the business, the pace of commercial construction and renovation remains a key variable. The stock currently offers a reasonable valuation for long-term investors focused on the sustainability megatrend.
This pillar assesses the company's ability to maintain and expand its market position, pricing power, and product innovation relative to peers.
This pillar evaluates the structural advantages that protect the company's economic profits from competition, such as switching costs and network effects.
This pillar measures near-term business drivers, market sentiment, and the effectiveness of management's capital allocation strategies.
Westmount Research. "Johnson Controls (JCI) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.