COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$12.00 per share
Current Price $454.68
Margin of Safety -97.4%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-eotenzz6> Vertex dominates the cystic fibrosis (CF) market, providing highly predictable and growing cash flows. Revenue grew 8.9% in 2025 and ~11% in 2024. FCF has been lumpy due to acquisitions (like the drop in 2024), but underlying operations support a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years.

Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-eotenzz6> Vertex dominates the cystic fibrosis (CF) market, providing highly predictable and growing cash flows. Revenue grew 8.9% in 2025 and ~11% in 2024. FCF has been lumpy due to acquisitions (like the drop in 2024), but underlying operations support a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years.

Terminal Growth Rate
9.0%

" data-astro-cid-eotenzz6> Vertex dominates the cystic fibrosis (CF) market, providing highly predictable and growing cash flows. Revenue grew 8.9% in 2025 and ~11% in 2024. FCF has been lumpy due to acquisitions (like the drop in 2024), but underlying operations support a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%
8.0% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
8.5% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
9.0% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
9.5% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00
10.0% $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

71 / 100
Moderate Prospect

Vertex maintains a dominant position in the cystic fibrosis (CF) market, driving strong cash flows and a 0.095 revenue growth rate. The company is actively diversifying its pipeline beyond CF, but faces risks related to patent expirations and reliance on a single core therapeutic area. A robust profit margin supports continued research and development investments.

Competitive Momentum 29/35

Vertex's competitive position is anchored by its near-monopoly in CF treatments, allowing for strong pricing power and consistent revenue growth.

Moat Durability 21/35

The economic moat is wide, protected by significant switching costs for patients on life-altering therapies and a strong patent portfolio.

Sentiment & Catalysts 21/30

Market sentiment is generally positive, balancing the strong current financial performance against the need for pipeline diversification beyond CF.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple?

Westmount Research. "Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.