An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
" data-astro-cid-w2vtsnjy> Averaged from historical FCF. Growth represents historical trends rather than arbitrary constants. We bound it at 3% floor to reflect stable defense base.
" data-astro-cid-w2vtsnjy> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. Beta: 0.20. Derived Equity Risk Premium: 4.0% (Earnings Yield of 3.3% - Risk Free Rate).
" data-astro-cid-w2vtsnjy> Calculated as exactly half of the current 10-Year Treasury Yield (4.18%).
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1% | $114.27 | $75.00 | $55.82 | $44.45 | $36.93 |
| 1.6% | $154.79 | $90.56 | $64.00 | $49.49 | $40.34 |
| 2.1% | $239.84 | $114.27 | $75.00 | $55.82 | $44.45 |
| 2.6% | $532.32 | $154.79 | $90.56 | $64.00 | $49.49 |
| 3.1% | $75.00 | $239.84 | $114.27 | $75.00 | $55.82 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Lockheed Martin is structurally entrenched within the US defense industrial base. The F-35 program acts as a multi-decade revenue annuity, supported by a massive order backlog from the US and its allies. The company possesses an exceptionally wide economic moat due to the insurmountable barriers to entry in advanced aerospace and defense contracting. While revenue growth is constrained by government budget cycles, its cash flow visibility and shareholder returns make it a highly resilient prospect.
Lockheed Martin exhibits steady, albeit unspectacular, competitive momentum. Its sheer size and dominance in key programs like the F-35 secure long-term revenue streams, though growth rates are inherently limited by defense spending caps and complex procurement cycles.
Lockheed Martin's moat is exceptionally durable, built upon massive switching costs, specialized technical expertise, and an entrenched relationship with the US Department of Defense that creates near-impossible barriers for new entrants.
Sentiment is currently buoyed by elevated global geopolitical tensions, driving increased defense budgets globally. The company's consistent capital return policies also provide a strong floor for investor sentiment.
Westmount Research. "Lockheed Martin (LMT) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.