COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Monster Beverage (MNST) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$8.29 per share
Current Price $75.06
Margin of Safety -89.0%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
12.0%

"> Revenue grew consistently from $5.5B in 2021 to $8.3B in 2025. A 12% FCF growth assumption models continued international expansion, product portfolio diversification, and robust pricing power, while acknowledging scale makes high double-digit growth harder.

Discount Rate (WACC)
10.0%

"> Revenue grew consistently from $5.5B in 2021 to $8.3B in 2025. A 12% FCF growth assumption models continued international expansion, product portfolio diversification, and robust pricing power, while acknowledging scale makes high double-digit growth harder.

Terminal Growth Rate
10.0%

"> Revenue grew consistently from $5.5B in 2021 to $8.3B in 2025. A 12% FCF growth assumption models continued international expansion, product portfolio diversification, and robust pricing power, while acknowledging scale makes high double-digit growth harder.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%
9.0% $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29
9.5% $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29
10.0% $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29
10.5% $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29
11.0% $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29 $8.29

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

78 / 100
Strong Prospect

Monster Beverage continues to deliver solid performance within the highly profitable energy drink sector. With nearly 11% revenue growth and exceptional operating margins approaching 30%, MNST scores an 81. The company's strategic partnership with Coca-Cola fortifies its moat, though increasing competition in the energy space requires ongoing innovation.

Competitive Momentum 25/35

Monster maintains strong competitive momentum through consistent product innovation and aggressive international expansion. The brand resonates deeply with its target demographics.

Moat Durability 29/35

Monster's economic moat is driven by immense brand equity and a formidable global distribution advantage, making it highly resilient against smaller competitors.

Sentiment & Catalysts 24/30

Market sentiment remains positive, backed by reliable cash flows and a pristine balance sheet. However, valuations remain elevated, demanding consistent growth execution.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use DCF instead of a P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple?

Westmount Research. "Monster Beverage (MNST) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.