COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Republic Services (RSG) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$16.60 per share
Current Price $221.99
Margin of Safety -92.5%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
12.0%

" data-astro-cid-luvxz6yh> Derived mathematically from the historical 4-year Free Cash Flow CAGR. We cap extreme outliers to maintain a realistic and conservative growth projection.

Discount Rate (WACC)
4.2%

" data-astro-cid-luvxz6yh> Derived mathematically from the historical 4-year Free Cash Flow CAGR. We cap extreme outliers to maintain a realistic and conservative growth projection.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.0%

" data-astro-cid-luvxz6yh> A 3.0% perpetual growth rate aligns with long-term GDP growth and inflation, reflecting Republic Services' pricing power and essential nature of its business.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
2.0% $108.82 $16.60 $8.99 $6.16 $4.69
2.5% $16.60 $28.81 $11.66 $7.31 $5.32
3.0% $16.60 $108.82 $16.60 $8.99 $6.16
3.5% $16.60 $16.60 $28.81 $11.66 $7.31
4.0% $16.60 $16.60 $108.82 $16.60 $8.99

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

81 / 100
Strong Prospect

Republic Services, Inc. is a leading North American waste disposal company offering non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, recycling, and energy services. It benefits from one of the most durable business models in the economy, fortified by immense barriers to entry and regional monopolies, largely due to the prohibitive costs and regulatory hurdles of opening new landfills. This strong moat allows for consistent, inflation-resistant pricing power and predictable recurring revenue. The essential nature of waste collection ensures demand remains highly stable irrespective of macroeconomic cycles.

Competitive Momentum 28/35

Republic Services exhibits steady competitive momentum, driven by its pricing power and consistent, recession-resistant revenue. Growth is largely dictated by incremental volume increases, pricing actions, and tuck-in acquisitions rather than rapid product innovation.

Moat Durability 31/35

The durability of Republic Services' moat is exceptional. High capital intensity, stringent regulatory requirements, and the irreplaceable nature of landfill assets create near-insurmountable barriers to entry for new competitors.

Sentiment & Catalysts 22/30

Market sentiment for Republic Services is consistently strong, driven by its reputation as a defensive, reliable compounder of capital. The predictable nature of its cash flows attracts investors seeking stability.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.