COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Blackstone (BX) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$9.10 per share
Current Price $113.53
Margin of Safety -92.0%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
12.0%

" data-astro-cid-guojhg47> Blackstone's immense scale and shift toward perpetual capital vehicles supply structurally growing management fees. Performance fees and realizations can be lumpy, but a blended 12% FCF CAGR maps reasonably to their asset gathering velocity.

Discount Rate (WACC)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-guojhg47> Blackstone's immense scale and shift toward perpetual capital vehicles supply structurally growing management fees. Performance fees and realizations can be lumpy, but a blended 12% FCF CAGR maps reasonably to their asset gathering velocity.

Terminal Growth Rate
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-guojhg47> Blackstone's immense scale and shift toward perpetual capital vehicles supply structurally growing management fees. Performance fees and realizations can be lumpy, but a blended 12% FCF CAGR maps reasonably to their asset gathering velocity.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%
9.0% $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10
9.5% $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10
10.0% $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10
10.5% $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10
11.0% $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10 $9.10

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

81 / 100
Strong Prospect

Blackstone's position as the world's largest alternative asset manager with approximately $1.2 trillion in AUM provides an unassailable scale advantage. The firm benefits from a highly sticky asset base and robust fee-generating capabilities, evident in its approximately $14.4 billion in recent revenue and $4.6 billion in operating cash flow. Its expansion across real estate, private equity, credit, and insurance solutions ensures diverse growth avenues. While macroeconomic sensitivities remain, its immense network effects and strong brand make it a highly compelling prospect.

Competitive Momentum 28/35

Blackstone maintains significant competitive momentum driven by its scale and ability to continuously raise mega-funds across various asset classes, even in challenging macroeconomic environments.

Moat Durability 29/35

Blackstone's economic moat is incredibly durable, fortified by high switching costs for its investors and massive network effects stemming from its $1.2 trillion in AUM.

Sentiment & Catalysts 24/30

Market sentiment remains positive, supported by the firm's strategic pivot toward credit and insurance, alongside steady capital returns to shareholders.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.