COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$8.00 per share
Current Price $792.00
Margin of Safety -99.0%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
8.0%

" data-astro-cid-6knfkj3v> Sherwin-Williams is an established dividend aristocrat with pricing power. While revenue growth may be single-digit, strong operating margins, share buybacks, and efficient capital allocation allow Free Cash Flow to compound at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit clip.

Discount Rate (WACC)
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-6knfkj3v> Sherwin-Williams is an established dividend aristocrat with pricing power. While revenue growth may be single-digit, strong operating margins, share buybacks, and efficient capital allocation allow Free Cash Flow to compound at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit clip.

Terminal Growth Rate
10.0%

" data-astro-cid-6knfkj3v> Sherwin-Williams is an established dividend aristocrat with pricing power. While revenue growth may be single-digit, strong operating margins, share buybacks, and efficient capital allocation allow Free Cash Flow to compound at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit clip.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%
9.0% $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00
9.5% $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00
10.0% $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00
10.5% $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00
11.0% $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00 $8.00

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

82 / 100
Strong Prospect

Sherwin-Williams is the largest global coatings company by revenue, maintaining a dominant position in the industry. Its vertically integrated retail network and robust pricing power enable it to navigate economic cycles and raw material inflation effectively. While there are risks related to cyclicality in housing markets and sensitivity to input costs, the company's sheer scale, brand recognition, and operational efficiency drive a strong economic prospect.

Competitive Momentum 27/35

Sherwin-Williams displays solid competitive momentum, underpinned by its massive market scale and unmatched controlled distribution network, which allows for strong pricing power.

Moat Durability 31/35

The company's moat is exceptionally wide, driven by its proprietary distribution network and high switching costs for professional contractors who rely on its consistent product quality and availability.

Sentiment & Catalysts 24/30

Sentiment remains positive, driven by the company's proven resilience and strong management, though macroeconomic sensitivity in the housing market introduces some near-term caution.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.