COMPILED BY GEMINI 3.1

Waste Management (WM) Intrinsic Value

An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.

Fair Value Estimate

$25.20 per share
Current Price $2,816.00
Margin of Safety -99.1%
OVERVALUED

My Assumptions & Rationale

FCF Growth Rate (Y1-Y5)
7.0%

"> WM enjoys strong pricing power due to localized monopolies (landfills). A 7% growth rate is conservative but realistic, reflecting organic volume growth, steady price increases, and investments in recycling and renewable natural gas.

Discount Rate (WACC)
7.5%

"> Given a 10Y Treasury yield of 4.18%, a 7.5% discount rate implies an equity risk premium suitable for a highly defensive, utility-like business. WM's revenue is highly visible and resilient to economic downturns.

Terminal Growth Rate
3.0%

"> WM enjoys strong pricing power due to localized monopolies (landfills). A 7% growth rate is conservative but realistic, reflecting organic volume growth, steady price increases, and investments in recycling and renewable natural gas.

Sensitivity Analysis

Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.

WACC ↓ / Terminal → 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
2.0% $32.40 $25.20 $20.62 $17.45 $15.12
2.5% $37.80 $28.35 $22.68 $18.90 $16.20
3.0% $45.36 $32.40 $25.20 $20.62 $17.45
3.5% $56.70 $37.80 $28.35 $22.68 $18.90
4.0% $75.60 $45.36 $32.40 $25.20 $20.62

Undervalued vs current price Overvalued vs current price

Economic Prospect Score

83 / 100
Strong Prospect

Waste Management Inc. (WM) operates an irreplaceable network of landfills and collection routes, securing a nearly insurmountable economic moat. Strong pricing power continues to offset inflation and drive robust operating margins of 0.20038. Sustained capital returns and expanding renewable natural gas (RNG) initiatives cement its position as a defensive compounder with emerging growth vectors.

Competitive Momentum 30/35

WM is translating strong pricing power and disciplined execution into steady revenue and margin expansion, slightly outperforming peers.

Moat Durability 31/35

WM's moat is exceptionally wide and durable, anchored by the extreme difficulty of establishing new landfills and the high switching costs of long-term municipal contracts.

Sentiment & Catalysts 22/30

Management's consistent execution and aggressive investments in sustainability drive positive sentiment, though high valuations temper near-term upside.

⚠️ Key Risks

🚀 Key Catalysts

Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.