An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
"> WM enjoys strong pricing power due to localized monopolies (landfills). A 7% growth rate is conservative but realistic, reflecting organic volume growth, steady price increases, and investments in recycling and renewable natural gas.
"> Given a 10Y Treasury yield of 4.18%, a 7.5% discount rate implies an equity risk premium suitable for a highly defensive, utility-like business. WM's revenue is highly visible and resilient to economic downturns.
"> WM enjoys strong pricing power due to localized monopolies (landfills). A 7% growth rate is conservative but realistic, reflecting organic volume growth, steady price increases, and investments in recycling and renewable natural gas.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | $32.40 | $25.20 | $20.62 | $17.45 | $15.12 |
| 2.5% | $37.80 | $28.35 | $22.68 | $18.90 | $16.20 |
| 3.0% | $45.36 | $32.40 | $25.20 | $20.62 | $17.45 |
| 3.5% | $56.70 | $37.80 | $28.35 | $22.68 | $18.90 |
| 4.0% | $75.60 | $45.36 | $32.40 | $25.20 | $20.62 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
Waste Management Inc. (WM) operates an irreplaceable network of landfills and collection routes, securing a nearly insurmountable economic moat. Strong pricing power continues to offset inflation and drive robust operating margins of 0.20038. Sustained capital returns and expanding renewable natural gas (RNG) initiatives cement its position as a defensive compounder with emerging growth vectors.
WM is translating strong pricing power and disciplined execution into steady revenue and margin expansion, slightly outperforming peers.
WM's moat is exceptionally wide and durable, anchored by the extreme difficulty of establishing new landfills and the high switching costs of long-term municipal contracts.
Management's consistent execution and aggressive investments in sustainability drive positive sentiment, though high valuations temper near-term upside.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.