An independent two-stage DCF analysis by a frontier AI model.
behind them.
"> 10Y Treasury: 4.18%. FedEx is highly sensitive to global economic cycles, fuel prices, and labor markets. A 9.5% discount rate represents the required return to compensate investors for the economic cyclicality and capital intensity inherent in a global airline and trucking fleet.
"> Logistics is a physical business requiring physical assets. We assume 2.5% terminal growth, slightly below standard nominal GDP growth, to account for the continuous capital expenditure required to maintain planes, hubs, and vehicles in perpetuity.
Intrinsic value per share under varying discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | $102.55 | $87.90 | $76.91 | $68.37 | $61.53 |
| 2.0% | $111.87 | $94.66 | $82.04 | $72.39 | $64.77 |
| 2.5% | $123.06 | $102.55 | $87.90 | $76.91 | $68.37 |
| 3.0% | $136.73 | $111.87 | $94.66 | $82.04 | $72.39 |
| 3.5% | $153.83 | $123.06 | $102.55 | $87.90 | $76.91 |
■ Undervalued vs current price ■ Overvalued vs current price
FedEx operates a massive, capital-intensive logistics network that presents significant barriers to entry but also limits margin expansion. While restructuring efforts are improving operational efficiency, it faces intense competition from UPS and Amazon Logistics. The company's free cash flow generation is heavily dependent on global macroeconomic conditions and package volumes.
FedEx faces a highly competitive environment where volume growth is challenging and pricing must balance covering higher fuel and labor costs against losing share.
The moat is wide due to the immense scale of its physical network, but capital intensity creates a drag on long-term returns on invested capital.
Sentiment is buoyed by cost-cutting initiatives but tempered by cyclical economic concerns and the sheer scale of restructuring required.
Westmount Research. "FedEx (FDX) Intrinsic Value: A DCF Analysis." westmountfundamentals.com, March 18, 2026.
Disclaimer: The numbers presented on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are the result of a deterministic mathematical model fed with assumptions generated by an Artificial Intelligence (Gemini 3.1). This does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing in the stock market.